风暴潮预警监测评估指标体系与决策模型构建研究

风暴潮是我国沿海地区频发的重大自然灾害，精准高效的预警监测是防灾减灾的关键。本文针对现有风暴潮预警监测评估缺乏系统性、科学化方法的问题，构建了一种基于层次分析法的风暴潮预警监测评估决策模型，旨在提升站点观测运行效率并为相关决策提供支持。本文构建了涵盖站点布局、观测设备性能等22 项关键指标，运用层次分析法确定各指标权重，并通过指标效度和信度检验提高评估结果的客观性和可靠性。计算结果显示：仪器设备（权重0.360 7）和基础设施（权重0.313 1）是影响站点监测效率的核心要素。检验过程中，风暴潮预警监测指标体系的总效度系数茁为0.08，可靠性系数籽为0.91，证实该指标体系具有较高的有效性和可靠性。实例验证表明：该模型能够科学、系统地评估风暴潮预警监测站点的观测运行效率，并且能够基于评估得分明确站点升级改造的优先级，为资源分配与优化策略制定提供重要支撑。

英文摘要:

Storm surges are major natural disasters frequently occurring in China's coastlines, accurate and efficient early-warning monitoring is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper addresses the lack of systematic and scientific methods for evaluating storm-surge early-warning systems. It constructs an evaluation and decision-making model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process to enhance the observational efficiency of monitoring sites and further support related decisions. This study establishes a comprehensive indicator framework comprising 22 key indicators, such as site layout and observation equipment performance. The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weights of these indicators, and the objectivity and reliability of evaluation results are improved through indicator validity and reliability tests. The calculation results show that instruments and equipment (weight = 0.360 7) and infrastructure (weight = 0.313 1) are the core factors affecting the monitoring efficiency of sites. The indicator system achieves an overall validity coefficient βof 0.08 and a reliability coefficient ρof 0.91, confirming its high effectiveness and consistency. Finally, empirical validation shows that the model can scientifically and systematically evaluate the operational efficiency of storm-surge early-warning stations. It also determines site upgrade priorities based on evaluation scores, offering significant support for resource allocation and strategy optimization.

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