| 马尼拉海沟地震海啸对我国东南沿海影响的风险评估 |
| Risk Assessment of the Impact of Earthquake Tsunamis from the Manila Trench on China's Southeast Coast |
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| DOI：doi：10.3969/j.issn.1003-2029.2025.05.002 |
| 中文关键词: COMCOT 模型 马尼拉海沟 参数化分析 地震海啸 断层参数 |
| 英文关键词:COMCOT model Manila Trench parameter analysis earthquake tsunami fault parameters |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目（2021YFC3100700） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 地震海啸危害巨大，分析我国东南沿海海啸风险具有重要意义。利用康纳尔多网格耦合海啸模型（Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model，COMCOT） 对日本2011 年3 月11 日地震海啸（以下简称311 地震海啸） 进行模拟，并与实测数据进行对比验证，选取合适的定标关系，并选取马尼拉海沟地震带三个潜在震源对我国东南沿海进行海啸风险分析。结果表明：COMCOT 模型可以准确复现日本311 地震海啸事件。在不同定标关系对比中，Geller 定标关系表现稳定，计算误差在15%以内。通过对马尼拉海沟地震带三个潜在震源地震海啸模拟结果的对比分析，发现我国东南沿海会受到马尼拉海沟地震带的威胁，预警时间为1 h，当震级达到9.2 级时，最大波高可达3.0 m。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Earthquake tsunami hazard is enormous, and it is necessary to analyze its risk along the southeast coast of China. The COMCOT model is used to simulate the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, providing the data i.e., the wave amplitude and the arrival time. By comparing the predicted data with the measured data, a suitable scaling relation is selected and employed. Three potential earthquake sources in the Manila Trench are used to conduct tsunami risk analyses along the southeastern coast of China. The results show that the COMCOT model can accurately reproduce the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The Geller scaling law scaling relation performs well in comparison with other scaling relations. The error of wave amplitude between calculated data and measured data is within 15%. A comparative analysis of the calculated data of tsunamis from three potential earthquakes source in the Manila Trench reveals that the southeastern coast of China will be threatened by the Manila Trench, with an early warning time of 1 h, and a maximum wave height of up to 3.0 m when the magnitude of the earthquake reaches 9.2. |
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