基于数值模拟的强潮海湾潮汐预报模型精度分析：以三门湾为例

全球潮汐预报模型在深水大洋具有较高的精度，但在近岸强潮海区由于地形岸线、模型分辨率等原因精度不一，难以直接应用。三门湾海域多年平均潮差4 m，最大潮差可达7 m，是典型的强潮海湾，为了评估TPXO9.0、TPXO9.0-atlas TOPEX/POSEIDON TIDES）、NAO.99b（National Astronomical Observatory of Japan）与GTM（Global Tide Model） 4 种预报模型在三门湾海域的预报精度，本文分别通过上述4 个潮汐预报模型提取水动力数学模型开边界进行对比，并利用提取的开边界潮位对二维水动力模型进行驱动。通过计算分析潮位站实测数据与数值模拟结果的误差，研究4 种预报模型模拟的三门湾潮汐变化得出， NAO.99b 模型在三门湾海域整体预报精度最佳，分潮振幅、迟角和实测数据误差最小， TPXO9.0-atlas 分潮振幅模拟较好，但迟角误差较大。对湾内四大分潮进行潮汐调和分析发现，三门湾海域以半日潮为主， M2、S2 和K1分潮振幅由湾顶向湾口递减， O1分潮相反。

英文摘要:

Ocean tidal changes are accurately simulated by global ocean tide models， but different tide models have distinct prediction accuracy in estuaries and coasts. The Sanmen Bay is a typical macro-tidal bay， and the average and maximum tidal range is 4 m and 7 m，respectively. In order to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the four forecasting models， i.e.， TPXO9.0， TPXO9.0-atlas， NAO.99b and GTM in the Sanmen Bay. In this study， the above four tidal models are used to extract the open-sea water level in hydrodynamic model to drive for numerical simulation. By calculating and analyzing the error between the measured data at the tidal level station and the numerical results， the tidal changes in the Sanmen Bay are analyzed by employing four forecasting models， and it is concluded that the NAO.99b model has the best forecast accuracy in general， with the minimum error in tidal range， epoch of tidal constituent compared to the measured data， and it is prefer to using TPXO9.0-atlas for numerical simulation in tidal range， but the epoch error of tidal constituent is larger. On the basis of tidal harmonic analysis of the four major sub-tides in the bay， it is found that the tide in the Sanmen Bay is semidiurnal， and the amplitude of tidal constituent M2， S2 and K1 decreased from the inner of the bay to the bay mouth， but it was reverse for the tidal constituent O1.

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