| 不同插值方法在海域气象参数估算中的可靠性评价 |
| Evaluating reliability of offshore meteorological parameters estimate using different interpolation methods |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 气象数据 空间插值方法 插值实验 交叉验证 |
| 英文关键词:meteorological data spatial interpolation method interpolation experiment cross validation |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 海域条件下的气象观测具有数据稀少、变化大且观测站点分布不均的特点，其插值精度受插值方法影响较大。首先对常规插值方法进行理论分析，进而选取了反距离加权法、克里金法和样条函数法三种插值方法进行了插值实验和精度分析。根据渤海湾某区域的气象历史数据，采用不同方法绘制了温度、压强和湿度的插值平面图，并基于交叉验证的方式对各插值方法进行了对比，给出了不同方法的插值估算可靠性评价。结果表明：温度、压强和湿度的插值精度均是基于反距离加权法的插值结果最优（MAE温度=2.42，RMSE温度=1.92，MAE压强=2.05，RMSE压强=1.30，MAE湿度=11.394， RMSE压强=6.43），同时基于反距离加权法的图形绘制可视化效果也要优于其他两种方法。研究结果可为海域气象参数估算提供理论和实践依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Maritime meteorology observation has the characteristics of few observation data, dramatic changes and uneven distribution, and the precision is affected extensively by interpolation method. Based on theoretical analysis of interpolation methods, the IDW, Kringing and Spline are selected for interpolation experiment and precision analysis. According to the historical meteorology data of a region in Bohai Bay, interpolation plans of temperature, pressure and humidity are drawn by using different interpolation methods, and the interpolation methods are compared and analyzed based on cross validation, and then, the reliability evaluation of three interpolation methods is given. The results show that IDW has the highest accuracy（MAE温度=2.42，RMSE温度=1.92，MAE压强=2.05，RMSE压强=1.30，MAE湿度=11.394， RMSE压强=6.43）, and the best visualization effect than the other two. The conclusions are able to provide theoretical and practical basis for the estimation of meteorological parameters in the sea area. |
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